cgt Posted May 17, 2005 Report Share Posted May 17, 2005 Ok. It seems like there's a bunch of people here fresh from the Bluegrass, and they've got shedding on their mind. This makes me want to ask the following question that I've been thinking about recently for various reasons. Background: The usual international shed is - what? - 20 sheep with 5 collars? This can be quite difficult with range sheep, witness the Nationals and some other recent trials as well, e.g., Soldier Hollow where nobody - or almost nobody - gets the job done. I was just at a nice trial (Big Willow) where range sheep were used (just about the nicest ones I've ever encountered - not that they didn't kick my butt) but the international shed was set up with only 3 collars (still take 5 sheep). This was a good bit easier - though plenty challenging - and let a number of people complete the course. It was fun to watch and things kept moving along nicely. Question: There must be a number of ways to modify the international shed to adjust the level of difficulty. What are they and how would you rank them in difficulty? For example, 3 collared sheep-take 5 is easier than take 5 collared sheep. Fine. One could have, say, 6 collars and take 5, which seems easier than the traditional shed, but is it easier or harder to do this than, say, take 5 with only 3 collared sheep? You get the idea. I have a mathematical formula that models the difficulty of all possible combinations. (Yes, I AM a loser. You want to make something of it? If there are any other losers out there that want to know, the formula is based upon the hypergeometric probability distribution.) I wonder if the formula is even close to realistic. The whole thing is, of course, way more complicated than any single formula, but most people have a quick opinion on the difficulty level of various combinations, so they are doing some kind of mental computation, right? Thanks for any advice. charlie torre Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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